Mark Drakeford on the campaign trail with UK Labour Deputy Leader Angela Rayner. Photo via Welsh Labour on Twitter.
“WE MUST NOT BE COMPLACENT ABOUT THE REAL DANGER OF SIGNIFICANT TORY GAINS COME FRIDAY. AS THE LARGEST PARTY, LABOUR STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEATING THEM.”
Welsh Labour Leader and First Minister of Wales Mark Drakeford, somewhat unexpectedly, has been polling as the UK’s most popular leader ahead of the Senedd Election on Thursday May 6th, according to one You Gov poll recently. But exactly how well Welsh Labour will do in the Senedd elections, and how close Welsh Labour come to gaining the balance of power in the Senedd, may well lie in the hands of those socialist voters in Wales who are understandably disenchanted with the present leadership, and direction, of the UK Labour Party as opposed to the Welsh Labour Party.
The electoral boost received by UK Labour in the General Election of 2017, including most remarkably and unexpectedly in rural constituencies, was testament not just to the radical beauty of the 2017 manifesto, and not just to the passion, vision and hard graft of the Corbyn supporting socialists in Labour.
That average 10% bump in the Labour vote, in pretty much every constituency, was also testament to a leader who possessed a quality that no amount of spin, leaflets or party-political broadcasts could buy.
That quality was Corbyn’s integrity – before the establishment realised the danger that Corbyn’s Labour posed and intervened to deliberately tarnish his electoral reputation.
I believe that Mark Drakeford possesses similar integrity. He is a socialist, though some say hemmed in by Welsh Labour centrists, and was elected as Welsh Labour leader by grassroots members in 2018 following the party’s adoption of One Member One Vote (OMOV) – the same voting system that 3 years before had enabled Corbyn’s election as UK Labour leader by grassroots members.
During the pandemic, Drakeford has been perceived as a person of unassuming character by party members and ordinary voters in Wales. This is in total contrast not only to the UK Prime Minister, but also to the Labour Leader of the Opposition, whose line of least resistance to the Tories has not played well in Wales.
More and more often I am hearing die-hard Plaid supporters praise Drakeford, initially grudgingly, but more recently with less apprehension. In difficult circumstances, Welsh Labour’s First Minister is doing a good job, standing alone from UK Labour and Westminster, and Wales is benefitting as a result.
And we must not be complacent about the real danger of significant Tory gains come Friday, with a new poll showing that the party has gained significant ground during the campaign. It would be a disaster if Wales went Tory. As the largest party, Labour stands the best chance of beating them.
At the same time, however, we must not shy away from criticising the record of Welsh Labour, whether it is over local authority cuts and privatisations, the lack of action against landlords and developers or the use of employment agencies in education.
It is also extremely disappointing that Welsh Government have refused to countenance a public enquiry into historic child sexual abuse on Caldey Island, a campaign I have been personally involved with.
In-fact many Labour members have had to fight – sometimes successfully – to change the leadership’s position on these issues.
Nonetheless, the picture ahead is complex for the left in Wales, especially in terms of the movement towards devo max and independence. The result of Thursday’s Scottish Parliamentary elections will play themselves out in the Welsh political landscape. SNP gains will inflate Plaid’s confidence and increase external pressure for constitutional reform on Welsh Labour. If UK Labour loses further ground in the Red Wall and outside of London, but if the party does well in Wales, we could see a more delineated drawing away of Welsh Labour’s position from UK Labour.
The Welsh Labour manifesto contains certain pledges that clearly indicate the constitutional and political direction that Drakeford and Welsh Labour are committed to, with a previous record of delivery that is sound.
One of the most important of these is the devolution of policing and justice to Wales, an imperative move prior to further constitutional reform if the labour movement, travellers, campaigners and many others in Wales are to be protected from the Tories Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill.
Other indications lie within the pledges, including the promise to bring forward a Wales-only solution for social care if the Tories continue to fail on funding; lifting the ban on local authorities being able to set up new municipal bus companies; a 20 mph speed limit becoming the default in residential areas; children being given free musical instrument lessons. These pledges would fit well in Corbyn’s 2017 manifesto.
But possibly the most significant pledge is the commitment to build on recommendations for electoral reform, boosting representation, and increasing the size of the Senedd by 20–30 new politicians. This, within the next electoral term, is where the real opportunities for systemic change lie in Wales– through the opportunity to elect grassroots socialists, trade unionists, and activists to the Senedd in 2026.
This is what every socialist in Wales needs to take on board when considering where to place their vote on Thursday. Given that Drakeford is planning to step down as First Minister halfway through the next Senedd term, a foundational platform for change will be created. But it is up to us, as socialists, to make that change happen. This is a gateway election.
Mark Drakeford has said he wants to create “a government not simply of the Labour Party, but of the labour movement in Wales.” In order for that to happen, we need socialists to vote for Welsh Labour on Thursday.
The writer is a trade union activists and Labour member and former candidate in Ceredigion
